Someone asked me yesterday if I was worried about the big crash that's about to happen in real estate. It definitely seems like there has been a slight slowing in the market lately but I wasn't aware of any impending doom. I thought I'd check out what people are saying and do some research on my own.
I looked at fortune, cnn money, kiplinger, money.com, bloomberg, and others. Everyone says about the same thing. Prices in general are still appreciating but not at the rates of the past few years and it seems likely that they will continue this pattern into the near future. This makes perfect sense to me as prices naturally rebound sharply after a large drop such as the recession of 2007-2009, then appreciation should slow down and continue on a more "normal" pattern with slight changes based on interest rates, affordability, regional differences in markets, and how many people are shopping for homes. This is good people!! This is what the market is supposed to do.
So many stats out there! There are plenty of stats showing prices in Broward and some by zip code but I wanna see the good ole FTL only! The only way to do that is crunch the numbers. I made this graph straight from sales off the MLS database. This is in real-time folks! I started Jan 2011 since before that, everything was pretty flat since late 2007. It goes month to month all the way through May of this year so this is the most up to date info out there. I'm using the mean sale price as this is less volatile than average. Even then, you can see it spike up and down and up and down. Just like any market, you need to ignore the month to month jumps and look at the general line. Basically, the take away from this is that the overall price of homes in Fort Lauderdale are going up at a relatively steady rate over time. I see a slight slowing of prices but not even as much as what I thought when you look at the whole city. It looks healthy to me. Yes, interest rates are going up but very slowly; Inventory is a bit low but I don't think that will be a long term issue. I don't know this for a fact but it seems like more and more young people are moving into the city and that will bring more and more. I feel like this is a rebirth!
Locally, I see lots of very positive opinions about the South Florida area. Check out this article:
http://www.housingpredictor.com/best-real-estate-housing-markets/
Here are their top 10 markets for 2016:
| Rank |
City |
Forecast Appreciation |
|---|
| 1. |
Miami, FL |
18.7% |
| 2. |
San Francisco, CA |
15.9% |
| 3. |
Los Altos, CA |
15.5% |
| 4. |
Seattle, WA |
14.9% |
| 5. |
Medford, OR |
13.9% |
| 6. |
Eugene, OR |
12.8% |
| 7. |
Napa, CA |
12.7% |
| 8. |
Naples, FL |
12.5% |
| 9. |
Austin, TX |
11.6% |
| 10. |
Tucson, AZ |
10.5% |
Ft. Lauderdale will always follow closely behind Miami. (until it overtakes it:) The Miami market has gone through an amazing change since the recession. It's no longer tied to the US market as it's such an international city now. People are lining up from all over the world for a piece of it, and prices keep rising. Ft. Lauderdale will go along for the ride.
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